Is facebook dying ?
This may sound ridiculous to many people particularly to younger people who for the last 10 years have used to huge numbers. Recently a pair of Princeton researchers wrote a interesting paper titled “Epidemiological modeling of online social network dynamics -John Cannarella and Joshua A. Spechler”
AbstractThe last decade has seen the rise of immense online social networks (OSNs) such as MySpace and Facebook. In this paper we use epidemiological models to explain user adoption and abandonment of OSNs, where adoption is analogous to infection and abandonment is a nalogous to recovery. We modify the traditional SIR model of disease spread by incorporating infectious recovery dynamics such that contact between a recovered and infected member of the population is required for recovery. The proposed infectious recovery SIR model (irSIR model) is validated using publicly available Google search query data for “MySpace” as a case study of an OSN that has exhibited both adoption and abandonment phases. The irSIR model is then applied to search query data for “Facebook,” which is just beginning to show the onset of an abandonment phase. Extrapolating the best fit model into the future predicts a rapid decline in Facebook activity in the next few years.”
Recently The Food Babe (A great person to follow in my opinion) made a statement during an interview which in effect said that whenever she posts update on facebook page only 114 people saw it. She had at the time 24,000+ followers and of course Facebook offered to help promote to her post to her followers for a fee (AKA promoted post).
How charming is that ? Facebook has for 10 years encouraged it users to build an audience so individuals could promote themselves now they want to start charging for it.
Here is a Wikipedia link to Defunct Social Networks
My next blog post and podcast is going to be what can you about. I have a some solutions.
Remember “Regular Content – Regular Traffic”